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Scholz’s coalition suffers EU election blow – exit polls

The governing three-party bloc is showing worse results than its conservative opposition and right-wing AfD

Germany’s ruling coalition was outdistanced by its opposition in Sunday’s vote for the EU parliament, coming in behind conservatives and right-wing Alternative for Germany, projections indicated.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) support came in at around 14%, down from their 2019 result of 15.8% and their worst result in decades, according to early forecasts for ZDF and ARD television, based on exit polls and partial counting. 

The center-right main opposition, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) are predicted to take first place with around 30%.

Right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) could be seen coming up in second place with some 16%. The ultra-conservative eurosceptic party has lobbied for cutting the deliveries of armaments to Ukraine as well as an end to the sanctions against Russia, calling for peace talks. Despite several scandals in the election run-up, their support has grown by almost 5% in the last five years.

Germany (European Parliament election), Infratest dimap 11:04 PM projection:

CDU-EPP: 23.8%
AfD-NI: 15.9%
SPD-S&D: 13.9%
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11.9%
CSU-EPP: 6.4%
BSW→NI: 6%
FDP-RE: 5.1%
FW-RE: 2.7%
Volt-G/EFA: 2.5%

Special election page: https://t.co/1An2baUbxhpic.twitter.com/p0RgM24cN8

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 9, 2024

The other members of Scholz’s “traffic light coalition,” the environmentalist Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP) are estimated to get around 12% and 5% respectively, marking a significant decrease in support from recent years.

Under the current coalition government, Berlin has faced rising energy bill costs and the risk of recession, following the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and fallout from sanctions imposed on Moscow. Green lobbying, meanwhile, has closed the last three of Germany’s nuclear power plants in April of last year. The IMF has projected Germany’s GDP to be all but stalled this year, estimated to grow by 0.2% in 2024.

The largest among the 27 member states of the EU, Germany currently holds 96 seats in the European Parliament. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is a member of the CDU.


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